Tri-Valley Real Estate Market Update: October 2026

Inventory Is Lower Than Last Year, Changing the Competition for Buyers

One of the most important findings in September's local market data is the reduction in available homes.

Across Alameda and Contra Costa counties, single-family inventory totaled 2,648 homes, down 18.75% from 3,259 homes in September 2025. Condo inventory followed a similar pattern, with 894 available units, an 18.36% decline from 1,095 a year earlier.

This is an important difference between the local East Bay market and the broader national housing picture. Although national inventory has increased, local supply across these two counties has contracted considerably.

New listings also declined. September recorded 1,831 new single-family listings, down 12.06% year over year. New condo listings totaled 396, a 12.58% decrease.

At the same time, sales have not fallen as sharply as new supply. Single-family closings reached 1,274, down 6.67% year over year, while condo closings totaled 234, a 5.65% decline.

In practical terms, fewer homeowners are bringing properties to market, while buyers are continuing to purchase homes. This helps explain why detached homes can still move quickly even as prices have softened.

For buyers searching in the Tri-Valley, fewer available properties mean that waiting for a large wave of new listings may not necessarily create more opportunities. It is worth staying prepared when a home matches your location, condition, and budget requirements.

For sellers, limited competition can be an advantage, especially when a property is presented well and priced according to current comparable sales rather than spring market expectations.

Single-Family Homes Are Moving Faster Than Condos

Days on market offer another useful perspective on the differences between local property types.

In September, Alameda County single-family homes averaged 13 days on market, improving from 17 days in September 2025. Contra Costa County averaged 19 days, compared with 23 days a year earlier.

This suggests that detached homes are still attracting buyers, even with higher borrowing costs and seasonal price adjustments.

Condos tell a different story. Alameda County condos averaged 37 days on market, up from 33 days a year earlier. Contra Costa County condos averaged 36 days, compared with 33 days in September 2025.

The difference highlights why buyers and sellers should avoid treating the housing market as one single category. A detached home in a desirable neighborhood may receive attention much sooner than a condo with competing listings, even within the same county.

For sellers, this reinforces the importance of understanding the competition within the specific property category. A pricing strategy that works for a detached home may not be appropriate for a condominium.

For buyers, the longer marketing periods in the condo segment may provide additional time to compare properties, review HOA considerations, and negotiate terms without the same urgency often associated with detached homes.

Are East Bay Buyers or Sellers in the Stronger Position?

Months of Supply Inventory (MSI) is one of the most useful indicators for understanding market conditions.

Generally, three months of inventory is considered a balanced market in California. Below three months typically favors sellers, while more than three months tends to favor buyers.

September's data shows that East Bay single-family homes remain firmly in seller-favorable territory:

• Alameda County: 2.0 months of supply, down from 2.3 months a year earlier.
• Contra Costa County: 2.3 months of supply, down from 2.9 months a year earlier.

Both counties have less than the three-month benchmark, indicating that buyers are still competing for a relatively limited supply of detached homes.

Condos, however, are closer to balanced conditions and continue to offer buyers more room to negotiate.

• Alameda County condos: 3.9 months of supply, compared with 5.5 months last September.
• Contra Costa County condos: 3.9 months of supply, down from 4.4 months a year earlier.

Although both condo markets technically favor buyers, the substantial reduction in supply suggests that conditions have improved for sellers compared with last year.

What Do Higher Mortgage Rates Mean for Tri-Valley Buyers?

Mortgage rates remain an important factor shaping purchasing decisions this fall.

According to the October market report, the average mortgage rate increased to 7.28% in October, compared with 6.71% in September and the 6.00% low recorded in March.

This means that even though home prices have eased from their spring highs, monthly ownership costs have not necessarily become more affordable. Buyers need to consider the complete financial picture, including interest rates, property taxes, insurance, and potential HOA fees.

For Tri-Valley buyers, this makes preparation particularly important. Understanding your financing options, setting a realistic monthly budget, and knowing which neighborhoods and property types fit your priorities can help you make informed decisions.

It is also worth remembering that market conditions differ between communities. A buyer comparing homes in Pleasanton with properties in Livermore or Dublin may encounter different pricing, inventory, and competition levels.

Exploring Tri-Valley neighborhoods can help narrow down the areas that best match your lifestyle, commute, and housing preferences.

What Should Tri-Valley Sellers Consider Before Listing?

For sellers, October's numbers offer both opportunities and important reminders.

Limited single-family inventory and relatively quick marketing times suggest that desirable homes can still attract serious buyers. However, buyers are paying close attention to value, especially with mortgage rates above 7%.

A successful listing strategy should start with an accurate assessment of recent comparable sales, competing properties, and the condition of the home.

Consider these priorities before going to market:

• Price according to current conditions: Avoid relying exclusively on spring sale prices when establishing an asking price.
• Prepare the property: Professional presentation, thoughtful staging, and quality photography can help buyers recognize a home's value.
• Highlight meaningful features: Updated kitchens, functional layouts, outdoor living spaces, energy-efficient improvements, and desirable locations can help a property stand out.
• Understand the competition: Review active listings and recent sales in the immediate neighborhood, not just countywide averages.

The right approach is rarely the same for every property. A well-prepared home in a sought-after Tri-Valley neighborhood may attract strong interest, while an overpriced property could spend considerably longer on the market.

Working with a local real estate team that understands neighborhood-level pricing and buyer behavior can make a meaningful difference.

How Should You Approach the Tri-Valley Market This Fall?

October's market data points to a more nuanced East Bay housing environment. Single-family homes continue to benefit from limited inventory and relatively fast sales, while condos are moving more slowly and offering buyers more negotiating opportunities.

At the same time, higher mortgage rates are influencing affordability and encouraging buyers to be more deliberate about their decisions.

For homeowners considering a sale, this is a good time to understand what comparable properties are actually selling for and how your home would compete in today's market. For buyers, the combination of seasonal pricing adjustments and a more selective market may create opportunities, provided the numbers work for your budget.

At Park46 Real Estate, we believe that understanding the local market means looking beyond broad headlines and national averages. Every neighborhood, property, and transaction has its own circumstances. Our approach is rooted in local knowledge, thoughtful guidance, and helping clients make decisions with confidence.

Whether you are preparing to sell, searching for your next home, or simply keeping an eye on the market, explore our featured properties and stay connected with what's happening throughout the Tri-Valley.

Thinking about buying or selling in Pleasanton, Livermore, Dublin, San Ramon, or a nearby East Bay community? Connect with Park46 Real Estate for a conversation about your local market and what your next move could look like.